Super El Niño 2026
How your small business can surf the AI wave
Waves are a powerful force that can be missed, harnessed, or destructive.



The homes in Southern California are a sad example of the destructive power of waves placed when a rigid structure is positioned poorly.
Meanwhile the oil platforms deep at sea barely realise the surf has increased. And the surfers?...
Well they’re having the time of their lives!
Along with this 2026 Super El Niño there is another wave surging through the world. The AI wave. Some estimate $2,600,000,000,000 will be invested in AI in 2026 alone. As a small business it’s important to understand what your relation to that wave is.
In this article, I’ll share what I’ve learned in my 3 years in the surf zone helping small businesses use AI. Some projects were successful and others were wipeouts.
What is the AI wave?

The AI wave is where the money is. Most of the investment leads to a few companies, predominantly OpenAI(ChatGPT) and Anthropic(Claude). These companies have been developing products that are targeting the entire AI experience. They’re not just creating the models and letting other companies create apps around it, they’re instead creating the app and targeting all the features such as computer control.
For example, at first ChatGPT couldn’t connect to the internet, so other startup companies built tools to connect it. A few months later OpenAI updated ChatGPT to have those same features, putting those third party companies out of business. Even large companies like Microsoft (Copilot) haven’t been able to keep up with the quickly advancing apps of these two leaders. These companies have been chasing the entire stack and we’ve seen a cycle of startups solving an AI shortcoming and shortly after having the larger companies implement it into their own apps. So simply the AI wave consists of the companies powering ever growing apps.
Positioning Your Company on the AI Wave
To properly understand this new technology it’s important to understand how waves work and where your business currently is positioned.


Missing the wave
This is where most small businesses are in 2026. They know AI exists and hear about it and maybe have seen it in their software as a chatbot or when they do Google search but at this stage it’s really only being used as an upgraded Search Engine and maybe occasionally helping to draft an email. It’s safe and business as usual, not helping the team much but also not costing anything. Small businesses are not the only ones who missed the wave; many software companies that small businesses use have implemented minuscule AI features to their software that don’t get much use and don’t work that well. This gives small businesses the feeling they’re using AI but not actually seeing much value.

Getting ahead of the wave
Usually being ahead of the curve is a good thing, but tragic once the wave catches up. Some small businesses have really leaned into AI and started building like crazy. A few have even begun developing their own software to resell to others in their industry. This costs a lot of time and money, often involving AI freelancers or specialized employees. While these new AI capabilities may provide a temporary advantage, the leading AI apps (ChatGPT, Claude) soon include features that make matching those capabilities much easier, quicker, and more reliable.
For example in early 2026 I built a proposal generator for a client, where they would upload all their files and information to a separate website and it would produce a generated proposal. ChatGPT at the time couldn’t read PDFs well or produce them so I had to create a whole separate website to accept the files and use other software to handle the PDFs to give ChatGPT that capability. Fast forward a few months and ChatGPT can now easily read, edit, and produce PDFs all within the chat. Thankfully we were able to shift the project back onto ChatGPT but I’ve seen plenty of other projects with greater investments and sunk cost fallacy that have kept owners continuously investing; trying to compete with the leading AI apps. Simply put, a small business is not going to out invest the AI wave, it’s far more efficient to ride it than trying to race it.

Surfing the wave
The ideal position to be in. Small businesses in this position leverage the trillion dollar AI investment to their advantage. They’re benefitting from the subsidized subscription of the main AI apps (ChatGPT, Claude) and leveraging the constant updates and automations without having to spend much of their own time or money. The true sweet spot, known by surfers as the barrel.
How to Surf the AI wave
So now that you understand the wave and understand where your position should be as a small business, how do you surf the wave?
1. Get a surfboard

To ride the AI wave you’re going to need something that will improve with the wave’s progress. Something that is affordable enough for your small business to accept as a new cost of doing business; like computers, or printers. And something easy enough that your whole team can use, even if not tech-savvy. The two leading AI apps are OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude. You’re going to need one of these to ride the wave.
Note: Many small businesses use Microsoft products and already have Copilot. Unfortunately Microsoft has really fallen behind with the AI app and lacks competitive features and speed of the other two. In addition, the price can be more expensive once fully implemented.
2. Take a surf lesson

The beauty of a surf lesson is that the instructor can usually have their students standing and riding waves within one session. That allows the student to feel how amazing the feeling of gliding across water is in a relatively short amount of time. Without the instructor it can sometimes take up to 8 sessions before someone can even catch one wave.
The same is true with AI. Training can provide immediate value for the user by guiding their effort on workflows that AI can easily help with. Maybe they’re asking too much of AI at its current state or maybe they’re asking too little. An experienced teacher can reduce the learning curve significantly and demonstrate business value immediately.
3. Stay with the wave

I likely don’t have to tell you that media talks a lot about AI. Although there’s quality content out there, it’s a needle in the haystack among sensations and trends. Most of the media is speculation about the future or stories about startups that are far ahead of the wave. It’s interesting to hear about but not sustainable to chase. It’s far more profitable to focus on what the big app updates like ChatGPT and Claude releases. This will keep you informed and not overwhelmed.
4. Enjoy the Surf
Once AI is working in your business it brings up the question of what to do with a more efficient business. Maybe you saved 4 hours a week, maybe your costs were reduced by 5%, or maybe sales increased by 8%. But what does that mean for you? Do you take a half day on Fridays? Do you invest more funds into increasing employee morale? Or maybe you just make more money? Regardless, the AI wave can be harnessed by small businesses to help them achieve their goals. I don’t think it’s required at this point as the fear mongering media would like you to believe, but when it does become industry standard, don’t you already want to be an experienced surfer?
If you haven’t already, Convaiy has designed a safe and inexpensive way to catch your first AI wave. For only $100/month/user we provide ChatGPT setup, service, and strategy for your small business.
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